The Defence Investment Plan was worth waiting for in one respect. After months of delay and following the resignation of a Defence Secretary who argued that the numbers simply did not add up, we finally have a document setting out the Government's ambitions for our Armed Forces. What we still do not have is a credible plan to pay for them.
The headline figures may sound reassuring, but they do not withstand closer scrutiny. A significant proportion of the funding has yet to be secured. The Government says it will be confirmed at the next Budget, which means it has not been confirmed at all. It is a commitment based on the assumption that a future Chancellor will find money that has not yet been identified.
That sits uneasily alongside the Government's own Strategic Defence Review. The review made 62 recommendations designed to bring Britain's Armed Forces to what ministers describe as war fighting readiness. Delivering those recommendations was expected to require substantial investment. The funding announced so far covers less than half of that requirement. This is not a minor shortfall. It is a defence strategy with a fundamental gap at its centre.
There is also a political reality that ministers are reluctant to acknowledge. Keir Starmer will not be the person required to close that gap. If, as widely expected, Andy Burnham enters Downing Street within the coming weeks, he will inherit an unfunded commitment from his first day in office. He will have to explain how the remaining bill will be met. That means making a choice, to either raise taxes or cut public spending.
However, it does not have to be this way. Conservatives have consistently supported properly funding our Armed Forces and have made clear that we are willing to work with the Government to identify savings elsewhere so that defence receives the investment it needs without relying on unfunded promises. That offer has yet to be accepted, but that offer remains. National security should never become secondary to avoiding difficult conversations within a governing party.
Russia's aggression has not paused while Westminster has been consumed by political uncertainty, and the threats facing Britain will not wait for the next Budget. If we are serious about defending our country, we must be equally serious about paying for that defence. That means being honest about the costs today, rather than leaving an unfunded bill for whoever next walks through the door of Number Ten.
